At the start of this past season, the Seattle Seahawks were +6000 to win the Super Bowl. Their odds were so long in August that even the Arizona Cardinals were shorter favorites.
Seattle managed to turn things around quickly.
But which long-shot teams could have their moment in the sun this upcoming year?
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6000)
I’ve gone on record saying the Mike Tomlin era had run its course. He still looks like a Hall of Fame coach (and if Bill Belichick isn’t one, then who is?), but sometimes both sides need a clean slate.
The AFC North had a bit of a down year, yet Pittsburgh is once again the reigning division champion.
The defense is beginning to age, but it can still be good enough — provided the offense isn’t an automatic three-and-out machine.
If the Steelers move on from Rodgers and hit on a quarterback in free agency, they could be legitimate surprise contenders. For a long shot, this feels like a team that could offer a very positive cashout opportunity by midseason.
Washington Commanders (+6000)
Does anyone remember that Washington was one game away from the Super Bowl in 2025?
The Commanders didn’t get much grace for the injury bug that plagued them last season. That could resurface — they still have one of the oldest rosters in the league — but I’m willing to bet on a Jayden Daniels resurgence.
Daniels is only one year removed from one of the best rookie seasons we’ve ever seen. Washington also has a much easier schedule this year, and adding someone like Caleb Downs in the first round could help patch up defensive issues.
If Daniels and Terry McLaurin stay healthy for a full season, I’ll keep the faith in Washington as a long shot.
Indianapolis Colts (+6000)
Halfway through last season, the Colts were 7-1 and eyeing a first-round bye. A few weeks later, Daniel Jones’ Achilles tear flipped the season upside down.
I’d like to believe the version of Indianapolis we saw in the first half wasn’t a fugazi.
Mostly, I believe in Shane Steichen as a head coach. I’m not sure if Jones will be ready immediately, so they may need to explore quarterback options in free agency — or give Anthony Richardson one last shot.
I’ll admit it: I have a slightly delusional belief in Richardson. He hasn’t shown much that would convince a rational observer he’s a long-term NFL starter, but the arm talent and athleticism are too freakish to completely give up on.
This is my least favorite of the three teams, but the Colts defense alone could be good enough to make some noise.










