The USDCAD continues to push higher, with the pair trading at its strongest level since January 20 as buyers remain firmly in control of the short-term trend. The latest leg higher began late Tuesday from a low at 1.37406, and since then, the price action has followed a textbook bullish progression—breaking key technical levels, consolidating, and then extending higher again.

During yesterday’s session, the pair initially moved above the 100-day moving average at 1.37875, but that break lacked immediate follow-through, leading to a modest pullback. However, buyers stepped back in, using that dip as an opportunity to reload. The renewed push higher carried the price above the more critical 200-day moving average at 1.38038—a key barometer for longer-term bias. Once above that level, momentum accelerated, signaling that the broader technical tone was shifting more firmly in favor of the buyers.

Late in the session, the price rotated back down to retest the 200-day moving average. That retest was important—it gave the market a chance to either reject the breakout or confirm it. Buyers leaned against the level, held support, and in the Asian session pushed the pair higher once again. That buying momentum extended the price up to 1.38486, marking the current swing high before a modest pullback into the North American session.

The corrective move lower has so far been contained. The price dipped to around 1.3821 and is finding support within a short-term retracement zone between 1.3810 and 1.38195. This area now serves as a near-term risk-defining zone for buyers. Staying above keeps the bullish bias intact. Moving below would begin to tilt control back toward sellers.

Looking a bit deeper, the 200-day moving average at 1.38038 remains the key downside barometer. A break below that level would not only negate the recent bullish breakout but also suggest that the buyers’ momentum has stalled, opening the door for a deeper corrective move.

On the topside, the immediate target comes in at the recent high of 1.38486, with resistance layered just above near 1.3860. A move above that level would confirm continued upside momentum and shift trader focus toward the next major target—the 2026 high at 1.39284.

What next?

If the price can stay above the 1.3810–1.3820 area and build momentum back toward the highs, buyers remain in control with eyes on 1.3860 and then 1.39284. If the price rotates lower and breaks below 1.38038, the bias shifts, and sellers can start to take back control.

Key levels: