- Prior +0.9%
- HICP +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y expected
- Prior +1.1%
The headline estimate is the highest since August 2024 as French inflation picks up amid higher energy prices as a result of the US-Iran conflict. The monthly reading shows that consumer prices were up 0.9%, the steepest jump since February 2024.
The breakdown shows that food price inflation was seen at 1.8% (previously 2.0%) and services inflation at 1.7% (previously 1.6%). As such, core prices should keep thereabouts as in February with the latest spike here being largely energy-related. Of note, energy prices surged by 7.3% in March after exhibiting a 2.9% monthly decline in February.
But over time if allowed to become more entrenched, higher energy prices will spill over to other aspects of the economy. That is a lesson that we are already familiar with from the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2021-22.
If the ECB wants to respond next month, they might have good reason to do so. But if their key metric is to wait for the impact to show up on core prices, then perhaps we might see them put off from raising interest rates in April.
That of course unless policymakers feel the need to be proactive about the situation, which typically isn’t something you would associate with most central banks these days.
