Tesla reports Q1 earnings today after the closing bell, with the release hitting the tape after the 4pm ET market close and the Q&A webcast kicking off at 4:30pm ET. For a stock that’s already down 14% year-to-date while the S&P 500 sits at a record, there’s plenty riding on the numbers — and even more riding on the narrative.
The consensus:
- EPS: $0.37
- Revenue: $22.64 billion
That revenue print would mark roughly 17% growth from the $19.3 billion a year ago — Tesla’s strongest top-line expansion since mid-2023, if it lands. Worth remembering: Q1 deliveries came in at 358,023 units, up about 6% y/y but down sequentially. And the energy storage business deployed just 8.8 GWh after a record 14.2 GWh in Q4 — a clear soft spot Wall Street will want addressed.
The core auto franchise is still battling Xiaomi and BYD on price and tech, Musk’s political baggage continues to weigh on brand perception in key markets, and the aging lineup isn’t getting any younger. FSD (Supervised) at $99/month just got the green light in the Netherlands, with broader European approval pending — a small win, but not the game-changer bulls need.
Note that deliveries were reported at the start of the month at 358K vs 372K expected so some of the bad news is already baked in.
The real story: Robotaxi
Musk’s timing is not accidental. Tesla launched fully unsupervised Robotaxi service in Dallas and Houston on April 18, four days before today’s report. They touted no safety monitors in the front seat and geofenced to roughly 25 square miles in each city. The stock rallied 12% into the announcement but that’s mixed in with Iran reports and the overall market. I haven’t seen any reviews of the actual rollout.
Skeptics are out in force. Electrek notes Tesla has reported 15 crash incidents to NHTSA since the Austin launch, with crash rates estimated at 4–9x worse than human drivers. Waymo, meanwhile, is already doing 500,000 paid rides per week across 10 cities — including Dallas and Houston since February.
What traders will watch on the call:
- Automotive gross margin ex-credits — the only number that matters for the car business. It could fall hard as the company discounts to keep sales numbers up
- Hard Robotaxi metrics: fleet size, rides, unit economics (Tesla has been allergic to disclosing these)
- Optimus V3 timeline and any Cybercab production date
- SpaceX/xAI integration and Terafab capex
- Anything resembling full-year delivery guidance
Options are pricing a ~7% move. Given the gap between the story Musk wants to tell and the numbers the P&L actually delivers, that feels about right but never underestimate the power of Musk’s hype machine, particularly around robotics.
TSLA daily
