In yesterday’s post, I flagged the 1.3709–1.3715 area as a key upside target (see: USDCAD moves to new session highs. Extends above 1.3700 and looks toward 1.3715), and the market delivered—but only partially. The high reached 1.3710, right into the lower end of that swing area, before sellers leaned and pushed the price back lower. The inability to extend above that ceiling kept the upside in check.
On the downside, the late North American session saw a move lower that found support at the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3666. Buyers leaned against that level—defining risk—and pushed the pair higher. That same playbook repeated in the early Asian-Pacific session with another successful retest and bounce.
However, following the sharp move lower in USDJPY today, broader dollar selling finally pushed USDCAD below those converged MAs, but momentum stalled near 1.3650. Since then, price has rotated back higher and is now trading just above the 100-hour MA (1.3662) and 200-hour MA (1.3665), with the current price near 1.3669.
So where do we stand?
Technically, the converged moving averages signal a non-trending, consolidation phase—your classic “three’s a crowd” setup. That view is reinforced by the repeated failure to break above the 1.3709–1.3715 ceiling, while on the downside, sellers also failed to sustain momentum below the 1.3620–1.3630 swing area earlier this week.
That leaves us with a defined range between 1.3620 and 1.3715, with the 100/200-hour MAs near 1.3664 acting as the barometer for buyers and sellers.
The market is coiling.
Buyers had their shot yesterday and failed. Sellers had their opportunity earlier this week and couldn’t follow through.
Now traders wait for the next shove—with momentum—to break the stalemate.
Below is the infograph of the key technical points of interest:
