There’s not too much happening on the session as markets are largely waiting on fresh leads from the US-Iran conflict. So far, there’s nothing new as we continue to wait on the supposed framework deal to at least free up the Strait of Hormuz. It still remains to be seen how such an agreement will work in excluding nuclear talks. But baby steps I guess for now.
As the wait continues, markets are keeping the faith at least. WTI crude oil is down 0.2% to $94.50 while S&P 500 futures are moving up by 0.4% on the day. Wall Street continues to move to a different beat as the tech rally stretches on. Nasdaq futures are up 0.6% currently. In turn, we’re seeing the dollar slip a little across the board.
It’s not much but EUR/USD is touching 1.1760 levels, up 0.2% on the day. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is up 0.4% to clip the 1.3600 level and AUD/USD up 0.3% to 0.7230 levels currently.
Major currencies have been lacking in responding strongly to the latest geopolitical headlines. However, I guess that caution partly reflects the action in the bond market too. While stocks are racing higher, the bond market continues to suggest that inflation pressures will be here to stay regardless and will present problems for major economies.
So, that’s keeping the dollar selling somewhat in check despite it being more evident this week. EUR/USD is a great example in displaying the mood among currency traders at the moment.
EUR/USD daily chart
The dollar while weak is not really breaking down to suggest an imminent US-Iran breakthrough just yet. That is reflected in price action holding just below the 1.1800 mark still. Meanwhile, the pair is also still holding support closer to the 200-day moving average (blue line) – now seen at 1.1677. So, that indicates the dollar is also not running away with a stronger momentum as there is hope for things to become better.
That being said, what is also interesting is that markets are pricing in more rate hikes by the ECB compared to the Fed at the moment. And that is despite the euro area economy arguably being in a worse spot than the US.
If you factor that in and the potential for either the ECB needing to climb down or the Fed needing to catch up, there’s scope to argue for a lower EUR/USD down the road. But I’ll leave that for a separate discourse.
For now, the pair is doing its job in telling us the kind of mood that currency traders are in. And that is one that continues to reflect cautious optimism about the whole US-Iran situation, despite the dollar easing this week.
