The Emirates and the modernizing Saudis, Bahrainis, Kuwaitis and Qataris are far from perfect. They do very bad stuff sometimes. But compared to their predecessors and others in the region, this new generation of Gulf leaders offers a model of modernity that is envied and increasingly emulated throughout the Arab world.
This war has been a disaster for them, frightening away foreign investors, tourists and talent and burdening them with a future of huge new defense bills to deter Iran after the United States is gone. All that money will be diverted from economic development. Even though there has been a supposed cease-fire between the United States and Iran, Iran has reportedly been striking the Emirates with missiles and drones, which Iran denies.
The Dubai model is precisely the one Tehran wants to destroy.
“If you are a young person in the Arab world, you saw in the U.A.E. a country that respected the rule of law, worked hard to avoid this war and opened its doors to everyone who wanted to prosper — even to Iranians,” Mina Al-Oraibi, the editor of The National, the Emirates’ English-language daily, which is based in Abu Dhabi, told me. “There was even an Iranian-run hospital, an Iranian community school and an Iranian community club.” Meanwhile, she added, down the street in the very same Dubai, “Israelis were having weddings.”
“If that model gets damaged without anyone batting an eye,” Oraibi added — and if the Global South in particular starts to look at Iran as the only country that stood up to Trump and Netanyahu, and held them accountable for the destruction of Gaza — it will be a tragedy that will diminish the whole region.
So, I end where I began. I understand why our NATO allies want to watch Trump and Netanyahu reap what they sowed. But these two awful leaders have sowed the wind — and we will all reap the whirlwind if Iran comes out of this stronger.
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