Fed Pres. Kashkari is speaking and says
- Inflation is too high
- A huge question mark about how long Strait of Hormuz will be closed, that will have a big effect on inflation.
- Fed needs to get back to 2% inflation, should not move the goalposts.
- Before the Iran conflict, had confidence that the inflation was heading back down to 2%.
- Labor market moving sideways, lukewarm
- Iran shop has upended inflation environment
- Labor market looks like it’s hanging in there
- Not sure if it’s policy rate decisions will have much effect on mortgage rates.
- Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will be months before supply chains reach normality.
- Not surprised by headline inflation rise, what matters is how persistent the Strait closure is.
- Fed chair has a lot of influence, but is one of 12 voters on Fed policy
- “Dead serious” about getting inflation back down.
I would characterize Fed’s Kashkari comments as having a modest hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains too high and warning the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created major uncertainty for the inflation outlook. He stressed the Fed must stay committed to its 2% target and not “move the goalposts.” Kashkari said he had been gaining confidence inflation was moving lower before the Iran conflict, but the supply shock has now upended the outlook and could keep inflation pressures elevated for months even if the Strait reopens quickly.
On the economy, he described the labor market as “lukewarm” but still holding up reasonably well, while also questioning how much Fed rate decisions directly affect mortgage rates.









