Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key catalyst for the market. Admittedly, the reactions have been somewhat less muted on good news lately. We will be monitoring those reactions. Meanwhile, trumpeters speaking and says
- Will work on Taiwan problem
- Will speak to Taiwan’s president.
- Think it’s good Xi meeting with Putin.
- On Iran, says that we are going to give this one shot, and am in no hurry.
- Will seek out of get rid of people in DOJ and FBI (not sure what that means honestly).
- Says that Israel PM Netanyahu will do whatever he wants him to do on Iran. Says Iran is decimated.
Crude oil remains a key market moving determinant, and also important in the consumer’s eyes. Currently, crude oil is trading lower, down $2.40 or -2.30% at $101.78, as sellers push the market closer to an important technical support zone.
On the hourly chart, the low price today reached $100.75, just above the rising 200-hour moving average at $100.55 (green line on the chart below). That moving average is proving to be a key barometer for the short-term bias. Recall that during Monday’s trade, buyers also leaned against the 200-hour moving average, helping the price rebound after testing support near the swing area between $97.34 and $98.58.
As long as the price can hold above the 200-hour moving average, buyers still maintain some near-term technical control. However, a sustained break below that level would shift the bias more to the downside from a technical perspective. If sellers gain that momentum, traders would next look toward the swing area support between $97.34 and $98.58, along with the 50% midpoint of the broader trading range since April at $98.30, as the next major downside targets.
There are a lot of balls in the air.
