The April JOLTS report was stronger than expected, with job openings rising sharply to 7.62 million, the highest level since May 2024 and well above forecasts. The increase suggests labor demand remains resilient despite concerns about slowing economic growth. While hiring eased somewhat, job openings and quits both moved higher, indicating workers remain confident about employment opportunities. Overall, the report provides evidence that the labor market remains relatively healthy and may reduce some of the pressure on the Fed to consider near-term rate cuts, although one month’s data is not enough to signal a broader shift in the labor market trend.
ECB policymaker Olli Rehn suggested that a June rate hike should be viewed as an “insurance” move designed to guard against potential future inflation risks rather than the start of a sustained tightening cycle. Rehn emphasized that inflation expectations remain well anchored, but argued that a modest policy adjustment would help ensure inflation stays under control amid heightened uncertainty. His comments imply that the ECB is likely to present any June hike as a precautionary measure rather than a signal of multiple rate increases ahead. As a result, the market may be overestimating the chances of a follow-up hike in July, with policymakers more likely to pause and assess incoming economic data and geopolitical developments, including the evolving US-Iran situation, before considering any further action later in the year.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reinforced her hawkish stance, arguing that it is reasonable to keep interest rates unchanged for now given ongoing uncertainties, but warning that waiting too long could allow inflation pressures to become more deeply embedded in the economy. She said her primary concern is the growing risk of persistent inflation, noting that monetary policy may not be restrictive enough to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Hammack emphasized that inflationary pressures are broadening across the economy, while the labor market remains near full employment. As a result, she remains firmly committed to restoring price stability and signaled that policymakers should remain vigilant against the risk that inflation becomes entrenched, requiring tighter policy for longer.
Major US stock indices closed higher with the Dow industrial average leading the way with a gain of 0.45%. The S&P index is up 0.13% and the NASDAQ index was unchanged. Despite the rise in the Dow, 14 of the 30 stocks were higher while 16 or lower. The Dow’s biggest winners today were led by Cisco, which surged 5.50%, followed closely by Caterpillar, up 5.16%. The strong gains in those two stocks helped drive broader strength within the index. Apple added 2.91%, continuing to benefit from investor interest in large-cap technology shares, while IBM climbed 2.75% on solid buying interest. Goldman Sachs rounded out the top performers, rising 1.53%.
The Dow’s biggest losers were led by Nike, which fell 4.79%, making it the weakest performer in the index. Microsoft and Salesforce each declined 4.18%, weighing on the technology sector despite strength elsewhere in the market. Boeing dropped 2.94%, giving back earlier gains and adding pressure to the industrial segment, while Amazon slipped 1.83% as investors took profits in the e-commerce and cloud-computing giant. The losses were concentrated in consumer discretionary and technology names, with Nike, Microsoft, and Salesforce accounting for the bulk of the downside among Dow components.
Alphabet shares fell 3.86% after the company announced an $80 billion equity raise, a move that will dilute existing shareholders by roughly 1.7% and highlights the enormous costs associated with the AI arms race. Over the past year, major technology companies have shifted from generating substantial free cash flow to spending aggressively on AI chips, talent, and data centers, followed by large debt issuances. After already raising about $85 billion in debt, Alphabet is now turning to equity markets, with the offering including $10 billion sold directly to Berkshire Hathaway, approximately $30 billion in public offerings, and up to $40 billion through an at-the-market share issuance program. The move is being viewed as a watershed moment, signaling that AI investment demands are becoming so large that even the biggest tech firms are seeking new sources of capital, while also increasing competition for investor dollars ahead of expected IPOs from companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
The fall was felt by a number of large cap names with:
- Nvidia: -0.69%
- Amazon -1.81%
- Microsoft -4.17%
Other losers included:
- Shake Shack -8.37% to its lowest level going back to November 2023
- Dell fell -6.54% as traders replaced Dell which was up 300% from the February low, with Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (up 19.47% after its earnings beat).
- Strategy (Microstrategy) tumbled by -9.15% as Bitcoin tumbled by -5.7%
- Figma fell by -10.53%. Remember when it went public in July 2025 trading as high as $142.92. In reached a low in April at $16.60 before rebounding recently to $27.74. Today’s decline took the price to $24.29 at the close
- Palantir-5.28%
What did not go down and helped to balance the overall indices:
- Marvell surged by 32.52% after Jenson Huang of Nvidia touted the company as a future $1T company. The capitalization is abour $200-$250M.
- Hewlett-Packard enterprise rose 19.47% after earnings
- Cisco rose by 5.5%
- Apple rose by 2.90%
- IBM rose by 2.75%
US yields are marginally laureth the front-end with the two-year down -0.4 basis points at 4.047%. The 10 year fell by -2.4 basis points to 4.453% while the 30 year fell by -2.6 basis points at 4.965%.
Looking at the US dollar, it was mixed with the EUR, CHF and CAD within 0.05% of the closing level from yesterday. The USD was the strongest vs the JPY at 0.18% and weakest vs the AUD at -0.36%. The USDJPY moved to a high of $159.98, just short of the 160.00 level that traders are worried about with regard to intervention threats.
Overall the USD index (DXY) is ending the day near unchanged.
Bitcoin is currently down $-4300 or -6.01% at $67,033. The low price reached $66,303. The high price was at $71,310. The close today is the lowest since early April. The low close for the year was in February at $62,795. The high for the year is at $97,939 (from January 14).
Crude oil is trading up $1.22 at $93.40. The high price reached $94 while the low price was at $90.12.
Progress on the Middle East continues to remain muddied and full of unsubstantiated rumors mostly. Israeli and Lebanon continue to add to the headwinds for the opening of the Straits of Hormuz and a cease-fire.
What was interesting is that prospects for resumption of peace talks on Ukraine are linked to the end of the conflict around Iran (according to Tass at least).
