- Q1 final GDP -0.2% vs +0.1% q/q second estimate
- Prior +0.2%
That’s not a good look with the revision putting the overall euro area growth in the first quarter into negative territory. That marks a contraction to start the year with another set to follow this quarter amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict.
A technical recession looms but it comes with a bit of a caveat. The first quarter estimate here is heavily influenced by a sharp drop in Ireland’s GDP. While only accounting for a small weightage in the overall calculations, there was a massive swing here to see the impact punch well above the weight. That as Ireland’s GDP is confirmed to drop by over 12% in the first quarter.
Outside of France, all other bigger countries that pull a heavy weightage did post some decent growth in Q1. So, there’s that to consider.
As for Ireland’s number, it is mostly to do with a continuation of a “technical accounting correction” which had been coming since Q1 last year already.
Tech and pharmaceutical firms aggressively accelerated manufacturing and panic-exported goods to the US in order to beat the tariffs deadline in the first quarter of 2025. And that was enough to carry Ireland’s total annual GDP to grow by over 12% last year.
So now, we’re seeing an unwinding effect and a continuation of the above as globalized sectors pull back significantly. The Q4 2025 figure already showed a 3.8% quarterly decline in GDP, with that made worse by the figure in Q1 2026 now. For some context, Ireland’s true domestic economy still grew by 1.0% on the quarter last year.
Circling back to the euro area report, the breakdown shows positive contributions from household consumption (+0.1%) and government expenditure (+0.1%). However, that is offset by negative contributions by gross fixed capital formation (-0.1%), changes in inventories (-0.1%), and exports less imports (-0.3%).
