UFC Vegas 118 Betting Picks: Three Fights to Target on Saturday Night

With just eight days to go before the highly anticipated night where they take over the White House, the UFC returns to its Las Vegas home at the Meta Apex for UFC Vegas 118.

The main event will be a welterweight battle that sees former UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad return to the Octagon to take on the rising Gabriel Bonfim.

Muhammad went on an 11-fight unbeaten streak between 2019 and 2024, culminating in his win over Leon Edwards to capture the UFC welterweight title at UFC 304. Muhammad, however, dropped the belt in his first defense to Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315. He enters tonight’s fight off a loss to Ian Machado Garry at UFC Qatar in November.

Bonfim is 6-1 in the UFC since winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022. Bonfim has won four straight and two performance bonuses, as well as a Fight of the Night bonus in his loss to Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim enters tonight off a finish of Randy Brown at UFC Vegas 111 this past November.

The co-main event will be a middleweight matchup between Brendan Allen and Edmen Shahbazyan. Allen has won two straight and nine of his past 11 fights, most recently finishing Reinier de Ridder on short notice in the main event of October’s UFC Vancouver. Shahbazyan, meanwhile, had a career rebound in 2025, winning three fights, most recently knocking out Andre Muniz at UFC 320.

The rest of the main card will feature Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan, Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna, and Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa.

BRENDAN ALLEN VS EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN

While it’s understandable that Shahbazyan is on a winning streak, this is not the same “Golden Boy” that the UFC had as an unbeaten prospect in 2019. Allen is one of the more talented names in the 185-pound division and has stacked up a solid resume since arriving in the UFC in 2019. After taking out Reinier de Ridder on short notice as he did, you could have assumed he’d be in talks for a middleweight title shot, or at least getting a contender’s bout against someone like Dricus Du Plessis. Instead, he faces an unranked fighter who started 2025 at risk of being cut.

Shahbazyan needs to establish control early. He needs to come out bringing pressure right away, and he needs to show solid takedown defense. If he can overwhelm Allen early, he gives him a better shot at getting his hand raised. If not, it’s going to be big trouble – and it might be hard for him to last five rounds with Allen.

BET: Brendan Allen to win (Moneyline) (DraftKings, FanDuel, & Caesars: -180)

FARES ZIAM VS TOM NOLAN

After a 2-2 start to his UFC stint, Fares Ziam is on a solid six-fight win streak and slowly developing into a well-rounded fighter. Tom Nolan is on a four-fight win streak and has a big opportunity in front of him to make some noise at lightweight.

This fight will come down to whether Nolan can use his size and press his way inside, or if Ziam can keep distance and fight a well-rounded battle from the outside. Ziam’s opponent history and longer win streak should give him the upper hand here.

BET: Fares Ziam to win via KO/TKO OR decision (FanDuel: -180)

IWO BARANIEWSKI VS JUNIOR TAFA

Billy Elekana was supposed to be in this fight instead of Junior Tafa, who is normally a heavyweight. It won’t make a difference; someone’s going to sleep in this fight.

Baraniewski is 8-0 in professional MMA, all first-round finishes and nothing has gone past 90 seconds since his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. Tafa has struggled in his UFC tenure, but he just knocked off Kevin Christian at UFC Perth last month. Both men have one-punch power that can change a fight in an instant. Baraniewski loves to make things short and sweet; however, the other key is his judo and jiu-jitsu background. For a kickboxer like Tafa, that could be problematic even if he tries to get inside and land that one punch.

BET: Baraniewski via KO/TKO in Round 1 (FanDuel: +140)