For the past several days, Iran’s skies have been free of the sound of explosions and airstrikes after nearly two weeks of renewed fighting with the United States. But Iranian officials have said they have not agreed to a cease-fire, and that they are in no hurry to talk directly to the Americans.
Instead, Iranian officials have emphasized that they are in a position of strength, with military officials boasting about their success on the battlefield and diplomats dismissing U.S. claims that they are eager to return to negotiations.
The rhetoric coming from Tehran is an indication that Iran’s leaders appear comfortable with the limbo state of its war with the United States, believing that they can handle a return to conflict and that they have leverage over President Trump. The outcome that Iran seems to be prioritizing is recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a concession that the United States has been unwilling to make.
Despite the bluster, the uncertainty over whether war or peace will reign at any moment is a challenge for Iran, analysts say. Fighting could break out again at any time, a final settlement appears distant and Iran’s economy is likely to further deteriorate because of the instability, wartime destruction and a U.S. naval blockade.
Ramazan Sharif, a former spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the ideological military force that has solidified its control over Iran during the war, said on Sunday that Iran’s “enemy” had “faced strategic defeat at every step,” Iranian state media reported.
Iranian diplomats reacted with more restraint to the pause in the fighting, but hardly expressed that they were in a mood for compromise.
“At present, what exists cannot be described as a cease-fire,” the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said at a news conference on Monday, after the fighting had stopped for several days.
Mr. Trump claimed on Monday that Iran had asked for a pause to meet for talks, and that the two sides were engaged in discussions.
Mr. Baghaei denied that. “We currently have no negotiations with the United States,” he said, though he acknowledged that Pakistan and Qatar were mediating between the two sides in comments to Austria’s public broadcaster, that were widely quoted by Iranian state media on Sunday.
Mr. Baghaei has called America’s war against Iran a “quagmire they themselves created.”
Iran’s negotiations, he said, were with Oman, over management of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway for oil and gas shipments that Iran effectively shut down after being attacked by the United States and Israel in February.
“They believe that time is on their side, that they can absorb pain and pressure more successfully than Donald Trump can, and that ultimately he will agree to a deal that fits their demands — without any concessions from their side,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst on Iran at the Eurasia Group, a political risk advisory firm.
The recent resumption of fighting caused oil prices to surge, raising prices at the gas pump for American consumers. Oil prices have fallen sharply in recent days, after the United States and Iran paused their attacks.
But Iran is at risk of overreaching, Mr. Brew said. For Mr. Trump, escalating the war is more attractive than accepting a deal that gives Iran control over the strait, he added, and other countries are unlikely to accept tolls on ships. There is scope for both sides to de-escalate if Iran can accept a compromise arrangement for the future of the waterway.
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