Like the melodies of “I Got You Babe” blaring from Phil Connors’ alarm clock every morning at 6 a.m., with August comes the familiar refrain that USC is poised to contend for the College Football Playoff.
And, like Bill Murray’s character, the conclusion of Thanksgiving weekend begins another Groundhog’s Day for the Trojans.
The 2026 campaign marks USC’s fifth with Lincoln Riley as head coach, and the blue-blooded Cardinal and Gold continue on a Playoff drought that’s lasted for the duration of the championship tournament.
Now, it should be noted that had the Playoff existed in its current, 12-team format during the 2022 season, the Trojans would have assuredly made the field despite a 47-24 Pac-12 Championship Game loss to Utah. Still, that should come as little consolation to the USC faithful who turned to Riley to restore the program to its early-2000s prominence.
Trojans brass lured Riley away from Oklahoma intent on playing to be No. 1, not No. 12.
What’s more, the lament that had the Playoff only been expanded before 2024 applies as much to Riley’s predecessor, Clay Helton, who would have had two teams (2016 and 2017) in the current iteration of the postseason.
In that regard, it’s not unfair to suggest the minimum baseline for success at USC in 2026 is making its first Playoff appearance. Riley alluded to as much when asked about the 12-team invitational at last month’s Big Ten media days.
“Every year I expect to win, I expect us to win. I expect us to compete for and win championships,” he said. “That doesn’t change.”
If the above sounds a bit like Cher belting out, I got you to understand, well, here’s what Helton said at Pac-12 media days in 2017, seven months removed from beating Penn State in the Rose Bowl Game.
“We understand what USC is about. It’s about winning [conference] titles, and it’s about winning national championships.”
And here’s what Steve Sarkisian said in 2015, coming off of a promising, nine-win debut and being picked as the preseason favorite to win the old Pac-12:
“We all chose to come to USC to win. I didn’t come here to be okay or come here to be mediocre. We came here to win championships.”
Then there was Lane Kiffin, whose 2011 team finished 10-2 and opened what became an infamous 2012 season ranked atop the AP Top 25:
“Right now we kinda feel like we’re in a perfect storm with so many good things going. We feel good about our current team and about our future teams for years to come.”
Doot doo, doot doo, I got you babe.
So what might make 2026 different than just about every disappointing season since Pete Carroll’s departure almost two decades ago?
“We’re more equipped than at any point in the previous few years,” Riley told reporters. “That’s not a hope or wish, those are facts. There’s a lot of facts to back that up. It all stems from…the alignment and momentum in the program is real, palpable.”
First and foremost among USC’s tangible reasons for excitement is the return of Jayden Maiava at quarterback. Since taking over as the Trojans starter midway through the 2024 campaign, Maiava’s quietly produced statistics that rank among the nation’s best passers.
His 285.5 yards per game ranked sixth among all FBS quarterbacks in 2025, and his 3,711 overall yards ranked fifth.
Running back King Miller flourished taking over as the No. 1 option after Waymond Jordan’s midseason ankle injury. With both in the backfield together and healthy in 2026, there’s a not-unrealistic prospect of them combining to be USC’s first same-season 1,000-yard rushers since Reggie Bush and LenDale White in 2005.
The most intriguing move, though, is the addition of Gary Patterson as defensive coordinator.
Five years removed from the end of his 21-year tenure as head coach at TCU, Patterson’s return to the sidelines is a throwback. However, it isn’t the case of deja vu that’s often haunted USC.
In his time at TCU, Patterson came closer to both a national championship than any USC team post-Carroll, leading an undefeated Horned Frogs to the Rose Bowl title to cap the 2010 season. TCU was also among the original, unfortunate cases of if the Playoff was only a little more expanded when it was dropped from the top four just before release of the 2014 season’s bracket.
More importantly for the Trojans’ purposes, Patterson’s TCU teams often boasted some of the most physical and stingiest defenses in college football. His 4-2-5 scheme should accentuate the playmaking abilities of Jahkeem Stewart, Braylan Shelby and Kameryn Crawford up front, while cutting down on the hefty 4.4 yards per carry USC allowed on the ground a season ago.
Patterson’s defense will be at the epicenter of USC’s forecast for 2026, with each of the Trojans’ three marquee games coming against opponents that averaged 33.4 (Ohio State); 36.9 (Oregon); and 41.6 (Indiana) points per game a season ago.
USC needs no fewer than a win in those three matchups. Otherwise, it’s a smashed alarm clock in November and another summer of Sonny and Cher a year from now.
