Sep 20, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Cade Smith (36) is congratulated by catcher Patrick Bailey (16) after the Guardians defeated the Athletics at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Cleveland Guardians were in fourth place in the AL Central with just over a month left in the season, and now, with a week to play, they can control their own destiny. No, that’s no déjà vu; Cleveland once again rounded into form in September and is playing for a postseason bye this week.

Cleveland was a flawed baseball team when they came from 15.5 games back to catch the Tigers, but the 2026 version of the team has even more holes than the predecessor.

Let’s start with the biggest change, Jose Ramirez.

Since Ramirez returned from his broken hamate bone in June, his OPS has fallen by nearly 60 points, and he has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. Fortunately, Jose has found some positive moments, as he had his two hardest-hit baseballs this past weekend since breaking his hand. He’s not the only player struggling in the Guardians lineup.

First base has been a massive black hole for the Guards all year, and since trading for Nathaniel Lowe at the deadline, it’s somehow only gotten worse. Lowe posted an .820 OPS in Cincinnati but now has a .671 OPS in Cleveland. However, there have been some positives for a Cleveland team that’s gone 12-7 in September.

Steven Kwan went from the worst hitter in baseball through June to a guy with the 4th-highest OBP in the American League. It’s a miraculous turn of luck, but his hot streak paired with the youth movement from Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana has allowed this lineup to fight for another playoff push.

Shockingly, when you really talk about the Cleveland Guardians, they’re always going to have some pitching to lean on. The bullpen isn’t nearly as elite as it was in the last few seasons, but Cade Smith has firmly established himself as a top-two reliever in baseball.

Close your eyes, Guardians fans. Over the last 110 years, Cade Smith has the third-lowest ERA among players who have pitched at least 200 games, only behind Emmanuel Clase and Mariano Rivera.

The Guardians’ modus operandi in the last few years was to turn the game over to the bullpen as quickly as possible, but they’ve relied on the rotation far more than before. Parker Messick and Gavin Williams are the most underrated one-two punch in baseball. Messick is likely to finish third in the AL Cy Young race, while Williams leads the AL in strikeouts.

I don’t think Cleveland is talented enough to go on a run, but stick with me for a second. If Cleveland earns the bye, they’ll likely play one of the Astros, White Sox, or Rangers in the ALDS. If they advanced, they’d get one of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays. The Guards are +800 to win the AL; maybe not a bad time to take a future on them?

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