Match Details
Fixture: (5) Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz
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Date: October 5, 2026
Tournament: China Open
Round: Semifinal
Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Prize Money: $4,089,385
Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN
Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz preview
Fifth seed Alex de Minaur will face off against unseeded Hubert Hurkacz in the semifinals of the 2026 China Open on Monday.
De Minaur has reached the China Open semifinals for a second straight year after fighting back from a set down to beat Andrey Rublev 1-6, 6-2, 6-3. The fifth seed had to save nine of 12 break points and turned the match around with a much more composed performance in the final two sets.
Hurkacz, meanwhile, has also put together a strong run in Beijing, following up wins over Learner Tien and Arthur Gea with a convincing 7-6(2), 6-2 victory over Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals. The Pole has been particularly effective behind his serve throughout the tournament and will now face a very different challenge against de Minaur, whose return game and defensive coverage can make big servers work for every point.
Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz head-to-head
De Minaur leads Hurkacz 3-1 overall and 3-0 on hard courts. The Aussie won their most recent meeting at the 2026 United Cup in three sets.
Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz odds
(Odds via BetMGM)
Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz prediction
De Minaur has the advantage in the areas that can make this matchup difficult for Hurkacz. His return game gives him a chance to put pressure on Hurkacz’s serve, while his speed and court coverage can force the Pole to hit extra shots instead of ending rallies with his first strike. De Minaur has also beaten Hurkacz in all three of their previous outdoor hard-court meetings.
Hurkacz, however, is serving at a level that can keep De Minaur from getting comfortable. He has hit 33 aces across his three Beijing matches and won 79% of his first-serve points during the tournament, so protecting his service games could keep the match extremely tight. His ability to finish points quickly will be particularly important because extended exchanges favor De Minaur.
De Minaur’s ability to neutralize the serve and make Hurkacz play under pressure should eventually give him the edge, but Hurkacz has enough serving power to force at least one close set. The matchup has all the ingredients for a deciding set, with De Minaur’s returning and movement ultimately giving him the slight advantage.
Pick: De Minaur to win in three sets.
Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz betting tips
Tip 1: The match will have at least 25 games.
Tip 2: Hurkacz to win at least one set with a score of 7-5 or better.
Edited by Pritha Ghosh
