The EURUSD has extended below last week’s low of 1.11603, reaching 1.1155 today—its lowest level since May 2025. The pair is currently trading near 1.1159.
The sellers got their opening earlier today when the rally stalled at 1.1217, near the falling 100-hour moving average at the time (see blue line on the chart above). The buyers had their shot, but they could not get above that technical ceiling. The subsequent move to a new low keeps the sellers in control.
What comes next on the downside?
The next key target is 1.11296, the 50% midpoint of the rally from the January 2025 low to the January 2026 high. A swing low from mid-May is also near that level, making it an important area to watch.
For beginner traders, that convergence matters: two technical reference points identify the same area where buyers may look to lean against support and define their risk.
A break below—and the ability to stay below—would open the door toward 1.1060, the May 2025 low, with limited support in between.
What would give buyers more hope?
The first step would be a move back above the falling 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.12056 (blue line on the hourly chart at the top of the post). That would ease some of the immediate downside pressure, but buyers would still need to get and stay above the falling 200-hour moving average near 1.12308.
The price has not traded above that longer moving average since September 10, when EURUSD was near 1.1610. That shows how persistent the selling pressure has been.
For now, the technical message remains bearish. Stay below the 100-hour moving average, and sellers retain control. Reclaim it, and buyers have a first step toward a recovery—but the 200-hour moving average remains the next hurdle.
