Rays vs. Guardians Game 5 Predictions: Best Bets for ALCS

Tampa Bay’s lineup came alive in Game 4 yesterday, leading the Rays to a 7-3 win over the Cleveland Guardians. With the ALCS now tied at two games apiece, we are guaranteed at least two more ALCS games for our viewing and betting pleasure.

So—how will Game 5 go? Is it time to ride the Rays or is Cleveland the best bet? Here are my MLB best bets for Game 5 of the ALCS:

ALCS Game 5: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

Rays ML at -128

I initially planned on picking the Guardians ML at +106 because I saw it as a solid value play in a game where Cleveland could most certainly win. Overall, the lineup has been solid in the postseason, and Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA in the regular season) is one of baseball’s better pitchers (and certainly on the Guardians roster).

But then I took a closer look at this game.

The Guardians haven’t been great at home this season, going 41-40 SU and 37-41 during the regular season. They haven’t done any better in the postseason either (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS). Tampa Bay, by contrast, has been solid on the road in the regular season (43-38 SU and 44-37 ATS) and playoffs (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS).

Messick has not been great in the postseason. He’s given up 7 runs (four earned) across three appearances, but only 11 2/3 innings. His longest postseason outing was last Tuesday on the road against the Rays (5 innings, six hits, 3 runs, 0 earned runs).

Tampa Bay had 11 hits in Game 4. If the lineup can keep the momentum going in Game 5, they could chase Messick early. That advantage could be all they need to get the win.

OVER 6.5 at -118

Tampa Bay’s offense appears to have woken up. With Game 5 today and no rest, the Guardians will need a solid outing from Messick to give the bullpen a break. But with how Messick has pitched in the postseason, that may not work.

While Tampa Bay has yet to name a starter, Drew Rasmussen is in line to start. But the Guardians beat him and the Rays bullpen to the tune of seven runs. Now, I’m not saying they’ll do it again or that the Rays will dominate Messick.

However, with how both teams have been playing, it is not hard to see this game end 4-3 or 5-2 with either team winning and with the final score OVER 6.5 runs. If the line bumps up to seven runs or 7.5, I’d think twice about this bet.

But at 6.5, absolutely take the OVER.