I do not love the value motion I am seeing in bonds after CPI. I hate to learn an excessive amount of into a number of foundation factors however US 2s at the moment are on the highs of the day, as much as 4.49% from as little as 4.43% after the CPI revisions.
The info was decrease but it surely’s not a sport changer. Fed funds futures pricing is right down to 110 bps this yr from 114 bps in cuts previous to the numbers. Subsequent week we get the January CPI report.
A protracted record of issues are making me cautious of a reversal as we speak:
- SPX hitting 5000 in one of many quickest rallies ever
- NVDA hitting $700 with an earnings report looming
- Oil costs creeping increased (with yields)
- Bitcoin has reversed a few of as we speak’s features prior to now 15 minutes
- Poor February seasonals
bitcoin dip a sing of a shift in broader sentiment?
I haven’t got a lot conviction in a name for a reversal however I actually would not chase threat trades increased as we speak.
