- Oil has dribbled lower – Gaza ceasefire talks, US inflation cited
- USD/JPY skyrockets above 160; other major currencies rally while Japan markets closed
- Japan is on holidays today. Yen is collapsing, with no prospect of even verbal support.
- USD/JPY leaps above 160 (briefly)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1066 (vs. estimate at 7.2579)
- Japan PM Kishida’s party lose 3 key by-election seats
- CE analysts forecast an RBA 25bp interest rate hike at its next meeting, May 7
- Barclays says expect a hawkish Fed and Powell at this week’s FOMC meeting
- Data released over the weekend showed China’s industrial profits fell y/y in March
- It’s a huge week ahead – the FOMC is the highlight but there are plenty of others
- USD/JPY back to its high after the quick early dip under 158.00
- Reminder, Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, 29 April 2024. JPY will swing around.
- Elon Musk met Premier Li Qiang in an unannounced trip to China
- Chengdu (major city in southwest China) has removed home-buying curbs
- ICYMI Swiss National Bank Chairman Jordan says wary about buying Bitcoin
- Chinese brokerage CICC cutting investment banking base pay by 25%
- Trade ideas thread – Monday, 29 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
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- Video: Why the yen is so weak and what’s next
- News is making people miserable
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 26 Apr. The JPY tumbles as BOJ does not look to support
The
yen briefly hit ¥160 towards the greenback right here
on Monday.
JPY
fell too towards different
main currencies. USD/JPY
hit its highest since April
1990. CFTC
information revealed on Friday, for the week ended April 23, confirmed hedge
funds and speculators held the most important quick yen place in 17
years. This may ordinarily be a cause to be cautious of additional yen
losses however this didn’t influence. The renewed
plunge within the yen was pushed by each cease loss shopping for (regardless of enormous
yen shorts there have been loads of yen longs searching for a change of
development) and the triggering of barrier choices circa 160.00. Highs seen
after 160.00 broke had been simply over 160.20 (160.245 sighted on EBS)
earlier than the pair reversed nearly as rapidly right down to round 159.30.
As
a reminder, the downtrend in JPY is long-standing and, in abstract, is
pushed by:
- Sticky
US inflation goes to maintain the Fed greater for longer - And
thus the gaping US-Japan yield differential will proceed to underpin
USD/JPY - Add
in subdued Japanese inflation information - And
the dovish BOJ on maintain once more final week
Whereas
I’ve been very dismissive of potential intervention from the Financial institution
of Japan (ps. its Japan’s Ministry of Finance that can instruct
the BOJ when to intervene) the transfer above 160 may nicely be described
as fast (nicely, this isn’t unsure!) and disorderly. These are key
set off factors for the MoF. I do keep, although, that intervention
will probably be a waste of Japan’s USD holdings. Given these factors above, a
driving down of USD/JPY by intervention will simply current a dip shopping for
alternative for these proud of the five hundred or so pips of keep on
provide.
As
a aspect word, right this moment was a market vacation in Japan and liquidity was
considerably thinned out by the absence of Japanese markets. We heard nothing in any respect from Japanese officers. No verbal help in any respect was provided for the JPY.
Elsewhere,
and notable, property
sector shares in China rose strongly, helped alongside by additional help
strikes over the weekend:
Oil dribbled decrease, the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza cited, together with the probability of a extra hawkish sounding Federal Reserve this week (the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assertion is due Wednesday).