A head-and-shoulders varieties in AUD/USD after 5 straight weeks of losses

The RBA choice is about 5 hours away and Australian greenback bulls may actually use a lifeline. Sadly, I do not see many paths right this moment that. No change within the 4.35% money goal is coming right this moment and I can not think about some sort of shift again to fee hikes.

The market is pricing in fractional probability of a minimize right this moment and that rises to 50/50 by June. Even with a pushback towards cuts, the market will simply dismiss it as a result of a lot may change between now and the June 18 assembly.

The very best guess for the Australian greenback her is a few sort of shift in China, which is one thing that I might argue is warranted. The issue is that it has been warranted for awhile and Beijing is asleep on the wheel. Holidays successfully begin on Friday and proceed for every week in China so it is now or we’re ready till mid-month at greatest.

Technically, the Dec-Jan lows initially gave means two weeks in the past however it appeared prefer it might be a false break. Nonetheless the newest leg of USD power has damaged the double backside once more and teed up a pleasant head-and-shoulders sample that factors to 0.6200.

The October low close to 0.6260 ought to supply some assist however it’s not a fairly image.