AFC South: 2024 Outlook, Preview, Predictions

AFC South division preview

2024 predicted order of finish, record

Houston Texans (11-6)

Get the right coach-QB combo and you’ll go places. Houston did that last year with DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud and are in prime position to make it 2-for-2 this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

Jacksonville wasted a season with a December/January collapse. It has to rebound this year or questions abound if newly re-signed Trevor Lawrence is really the QB to take them places.

Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

Indy came very close to earning a playoff spot against steep odds last year. Can its franchise QB, Anthony Richardson, last more than four games this year?

Tennessee Titans (7-10)

A new coach (Brian Callahan) and second-year QB (Will Levis) give this team a hall pass for now while the league becomes accustomed to seeing Derrick Henry in a new uniform (and division). But there’s talent on this roster. Get off to a fast start, though, and who knows?

–AFC South MVP candidates

Texans QB C.J. Stroud

If 2023 was any indication, history might guffaw loudly at the Carolina Panthers for passing Stroud with the top pick to take Bryce Young. Stroud was everything Houston could have wanted and more in a quarterback, showing the maturity and skill to win big games down the stretch. There’s no reason to expect a sophomore jinx, given his focus and the fact the team added Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs at running back and receiver, respectively.

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor

With a young quarterback that has just four games of NFL experience, it stands to reason that Indianapolis will need to build its offense around a guy who can carry a team if healthy. If is the question here as he’s missed 13 games the last two years. But should Taylor post for all 17 games, he figures to get plenty of chances to match or surpass the 1,811 yards he rushed for back in 2021.

Titans QB Will Levis

There were some Ryan Leaf-type vibes around this pick in the second round last year but when Levis got the starting job in late October, he showed a big-league arm, plus plenty of poise and moxie while playing behind an offensive line composed mostly of turnstiles and papier-mache. Get actual blocking in front of him and Levis just might be the franchise QB this team’s sought since Steve McNair.

–AFC South breakout players

Texans CB Kamari Lassiter

Guys that come out of the Georgia program these days seem ready to play right out of the gate. Lassiter is the latest to fit that mold in a secondary with an abundance of under-the-radar talent.

Texans WR John Metchie III

The guy beat an ACL tear and cancer before playing in an NFL game. After 16 catches in limited time last year, he might give Stroud a big-play threat down the field.

Jaguars RT Anton Harrison

After a shaky start as a rookie, Harrison got better as the year progressed, not allowing a sack in his last nine games. He should be able to build on that ending for 2024.

Jaguars WR Gabe Davis

A free agent acquisition from Buffalo, Davis has averaged more than 16 yards per catch over the last four years. Getting out of Stefon Diggs’ shadow could mean more receptions for him.

Colts QB Anthony Richardson

Yeah, this is low-hanging fruit. But considering he played just four games last year in which he showed vast potential, it’s easy to say he’s this franchise’s breakout guy in 2024 – if he stays healthy.

Colts WR Adonai Mitchell

The rookie out of Texas has a chance to become a go-to guy on a team with just one wide receiver that strikes any sort of fear in defenses – Michael Pittman.

Titans RB Tyjae Spears

After serving an apprenticeship of sorts last year behind Derrick Henry, Spears will at least split time with Tony Pollard and could be a threat running and catching the ball.

Titans LG Peter Skoronski

Skoronski had an up-and-down rookie season but he showed promise and had big offseason by becoming a pupil of new OL coach Bill Callahan. He also added weight going into this season after playing mostly outside for Northwestern.

–Week 1 outlook

Bears vs. Titans, 1 p.m. ET

A planned grand unveiling of new franchise quarterback Caleb Williams and his array of receivers against first-year coach Brian Callahan of the Titans, who’d like nothing more than to shift the gathering into Will Levis’ coming out party. A shootout isn’t out of the question but the Bears’ defense was dominant the final six games of the 2023 season and might be due more attention.

Texans vs. Colts, 1 p.m. ET

These teams played a barnburner to end last year and Houston won to earn the AFC South title, thanks to a 4th-down drop that sealed Indianapolis’ fate. It’s easy to forget that when the teams played last September, Anthony Richardson was the best player on the field in the first half of an easy Colts’ win before leaving with an injury. The ramifications from this result could be felt all the way into January.

Jaguars vs Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET

This will be the first test of Jacksonville’s retooled offensive line and revamped defense. Those weaknesses in 2023 were prime reasons for a late-season fade pattern that cost the Jaguars a division title and playoff spot. It will be an especially tough test for the defense and its young secondary against the Dolphins’ explosive offense. And can Trevor Lawrence get back to the standard of play he flashed at the end of 2022?

–Field Level Media