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AI development nonetheless sturdy, valuations stay affordable: increase underpinned by capex, not hype

UBS says investors should stay engaged in artificial intelligence, arguing that the rally remains supported by innovation, adoption, and accelerating capital expenditure rather than hype.

The bank pointed to ongoing product innovation driving compute demand, citing OpenAI’s latest developer updates and partnerships with AMD and NVIDIA as proof of deepening ecosystem cooperation. UBS estimates as much as 16 gigawatts of new data-centre capacity is planned, underlining sustained infrastructure growth.

AI adoption is broadening rapidly, with a Microsoft survey showing 26% of Americans now use AI tools daily, compared with 59% in early-adopter markets such as Singapore and the UAE. UBS expects global AI revenues to grow at a 41% annual pace to USD 2.6 trillion by 2030 as monetisation accelerates.

Valuations remain “reasonable versus the dot-com era,” UBS said, noting that earnings growth among large-cap tech names has outpaced share-price gains, keeping multiples contained. It forecasts AI-related capex rising 67% this year to USD 375 billion and another 33% next year to USD 500 billion.

UBS recommends maintaining diversified exposure across software, hardware, and semiconductor firms and phasing in allocations on market dips. The bank also continues to favour China tech, citing attractive valuations and solid medium-term earnings growth.

UBS’s upbeat tone supports continued positioning in AI-linked equities, suggesting the sector’s gains rest on rising earnings and investment rather than speculation. Its outlook may temper bubble concerns and sustain sentiment across tech hardware and data-centre plays.

I wonder if this is going to be some cold water:

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