Atlanta Fed GDPNow progress estimate for This fall stays at 2.4%

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q progress got here in at 2.4%. That’s unchanged from the prior report. In their very own phrases:

The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP progress (seasonally adjusted annual fee) within the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 p.c on January 19, unchanged from January 18 after rounding. After this morning’s existing-home gross sales report from the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter actual residential funding progress decreased from -0.4 p.c to -0.6 p.c.

That is the final GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The primary GDPNow forecast for the primary quarter will probably be on Friday, January 26.

The economists estimate for This fall progress is round 2.0%. So the Atlanta Fed mannequin is a bit increased.

The NY Fed used to launch a mannequin estimate, however they stopped because it diverged from actuality. The Atlanta Fed mannequin has been extra profitable in projecting progress.