From the Atlanta Fed:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent
on January 8, up from 2.7 percent on January 5. After recent releases
from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the
Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real
personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.4 percent to
3.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to
fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.30 percentage points to
1.97 percentage points.
This is something I flagged after the trade balance report but it’s likely to get more attention now, at least on the political side of things. Note that we’re very early in the Q4 reporting cycle because of the US government shutdown. We have Oct trade but still need November and December, along wit ha host of other data.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
