The Australian April 2025 jobs data is here:
89,000 jobs were added, thebiggest monthly increase in 14 months
- 59,500 of those full-time.
That’s a strong, strong result. The consensus analyst expectation was for 20,000 jobs to be added, so the result was more than 4 times that.
Taking some shine off the result is the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, so no inroads into the jobless rate. Still 4.1% is not too far off 5 decade lows. The participation rate rose to a record high 67.1%. More entrants into the l;about market has held the jobless rate steady.
As I said in the data post, this report ushers in the prospect of no rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. the Bank meets on May 19 and 20 and expectations have been wide for a 25bp rate cut. Those expectations will wobble a little on this report. Add in a calming in markets after the US-China ceasefire in Trump’s trade tariff war and its not difficult seeing the RBA holding steady.
At this stage I’m still in the 25bp rate cut camp.
The Australian dollar popped a few points higher on the report, but so far with no follow-through.
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