AUDUSD meltdown: Sellers crush assist within the largest drop since 2012

In my post yesterday, I wrote:

The pair is now sliding back toward a cluster of key moving averages on the 4-hour chart — including the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart and the 100 day MA — currently between 0.6305–0.6317 area. A move below this zone would tilt the bias back to the downside and potentially trigger further selling.

The concern to the upside, came after the pair stalled the rally just short of the swing highs from March 18 (at 0.63902. The high price yesterday reached 0.63882 just below that March high (see the chart above).

The price today DID indeed break below that cluster of MAs in the Asian Pacific session and buyers turned to sellers. The China announcement of retaliatory tariffs added to the selling pressure as trade wars escalated.

The AUDUSD is down -4.40% on the day, marking its largest single-day decline since at least September 2012 (based on available data). This drop surpasses even the sharpest losses seen during the pandemic, when the worst daily decline was around -3.8%.

During the move lower, price extended below the 2024 low set in early February at 0.60870, breaking key support. While there was a brief rebound off the lows, the rally stalled near the January 13 swing low at 0.61306, with the high reaching 0.61382—just above that level.

However, sellers quickly reasserted control, and the pair has since rotated back lower. It’s now trading below the former February low at 0.60870, with the current price at 0.6074. The pressure remains firmly on the downside, and sellers continue to dominate the price action.

What next?

A move back above 0.6087 is the first sign that buyers may be attempting to regain some control. Beyond that, a break and hold above 0.61306 is critical—especially given today’s strong, trend-like move lower. Without those steps, buyers are simply not winning, and sellers remain firmly in control.

Looking at the broader picture on the weekly chart, today’s low takes AUDUSD to its lowest level since the pandemic period in April 2020. The next major target comes into view around 0.5985, which corresponds to swing lows from the weeks of March 29 and April 5, 2020.