Fundamental
Overview
The USD regained some
ground in the past days but the momentum stalled as December rate cut odds
jumped following Fed’s Williams
dovish comments.
As of now, the December
rate cut odds stand around 70% but we won’t get much data before the FOMC
meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims and ADP data.
Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong data could
provide some short-term support.
On the AUD side, all the
economic data came out on the hawkish side with big upside surprises in both
the inflation and employment reports. The RBA is now comfortably on the
sidelines with the market not seeing a rate cut in 2026 anymore.
Tomorrow, we have the
Australian monthly CPI data but it’s unlikely to change anything for the RBA as
the central bank has already mentioned many times that monthly data is more
volatile and they focus more on the quarterly reports.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
AUDUSD daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD probed below the October lows on Friday but eventually bounced
back following Fed’s Williams rate cut endorsement. The buyers will likely
continue to step in around these levels targeting a rally into the 0.6520
resistance next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.6350 support.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The
sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to
position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6520 level next.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection, while the buyers
will target a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the weekly ADP jobs data and the US Consumer Confidence report.
We will also get the September US PPI and Retail Sales reports. Tomorrow, we
have the Australian monthly CPI data and the most recent US Jobless Claims
figures. On Thursday, we have the US Thanksgiving holiday which is likely to
make the final part of the week more rangebound.
