More and more within the panorama of pro-Ukrainian analysts, you see disenchanted folks predicting that the siege of Avdiivka is quickly changing into ‘Bakhmut 2.0’.
On a quick and shallow studying of this reference we perceive that they worry town will fall with lots of losses for Kiev – and that’s precisely the case.
However there’s extra to this: in Bakhmut – and in addition in Mariupol – there was the identical dynamic at play the place, at a sure level in the course of the siege, the navy management of Ukraine knew it was futile to persist, and wished to retreat saving the elite forces there to combat one other day, in higher fortified positions.
In each these cities’ circumstances – and now Avdiivka – the civilian management round President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted its forces put up a valiant combat ‘to the end,’ which they did.
Whereas it may be validly argued that by retreating continuous, they’d quickly find yourself with none territory, alternatively, the ineffective sacrifice of a few of the most battle-worthy Ukrainian troops was sorely missed when it was time for them to launch the summer time offensive.
Now, in Avdiivka, Zelensky has fired too-independent Normal Valery Zaluzhny, and new appointee Oleksandr Syrsky will definitely heed the President’s name for a determined protection.
It seems that Ukraine is certainly reinforcing Avdiivka, reportedly with top-of-the-line brigades within the Ukrainian military, the third Assault Brigade.
Forbes reported:
“Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavriya group of forces in Avdiivka, announced the reinforcement on Telegram on Saturday. ‘We strengthen the blocking line, set up additional firing positions and use fresh effective forces’, Tarnavskyi wrote. ‘Logistical delivery continues’.
That the Ukrainians would reinforce Avdiivka was not a foregone conclusion. In apparently selecting to remain and combat, Ukrainian forces are accepting monumental threat.
After 4 months of onerous combating, Russian troops from the 2nd and forty first Mixed Arms Armies lastly breached Avdiivka—a key Ukrainian stronghold simply 5 miles northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk—earlier this month and approached inside a couple of hundred yards of the primary street by which the Ukrainian garrison, centered on the a hundred and tenth Mechanized Brigade, will get provides into town.”
The selection is to tug again the a hundred and tenth Brigade’s survivors or reinforce them to attempt to push the superior Russian forces away from the provision strains.
The choice is for certain to have been made away from the battlefield. Unpopular ‘the butcher’ Syrsky, it might be remembered, has a status for accepting excessive casualties in cussed, static fights.
The response might embody the deployment of parts of the third Assault Brigade. Since December, the unit has been in reserve in Kramatorsk, 50 miles north of Avdiivka.
“The 2,000-person brigade fought one of the last winning battles of Ukraine’s 2023 offensive and liberated the town of Andriivka, 25 miles north of Avdiivka. The victory earned the year-old brigade an opportunity to rest, retrain, recruit new soldiers and, if rumors are true, re-equip with American-made M-2 fighting vehicles.”
The width of the hall to produce most of #Avdiivka is lower than 5 km. Ukraine should both maintain (and even higher: widen) that hall, or it ought to begin withdrawing its troops from the almost-encircled components of the city. pic.twitter.com/lUY1KC1LgX
— Julian Röpcke (@JulianRoepcke) February 12, 2024
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