Bank of Mexico lowers benchmark interest rate to 8.50% from 9.00%
Board says decision was unanimous
Board estimates that looking forward it could continue calibrating the monetary policy stance and consider adjusting it in similar magnitudes
Board anticipates that the inflationary environment will allow to continue the rate cutting cycle, albeit maintaining a restrictive stance
Headline inflation is projected to converge to target in Q3 of 2026
Balance of risks for trajectory of inflation within the forecast horizon remains biased to the upside
Balance of risks for trajectory of inflation has improved
Changes in economic policy by the new US administration have added uncertainty to the forecasts
Board will take into account the effects of the country’s weak economic activity and the incidence of both the restrictive monetary policy stance that has been maintained
Forecasts Q4 2026 average annual headline inflation at 3.3% versus previous forecast of 3.0%
Forecasts Q4 2026 average annual core inflation at 3.0% versus previous forecast of 3.0%
Forecasts Q4 2025 average annual headline inflation at 3.3% versus previous forecast of 3.3%
Forecasts Q4 2025 average annual core inflation at 3.4% versus previous forecast of 3.3%
The board took into account the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of the economic activity and the possible impact of changes in trade policies worldwide.
The environment of uncertainty and trade tensions poses significant downward risks

Technically, the USDMXN is rebounding after hitting its lowest level since October in yesterday’s trade, with a session low of 19.3006. Today’s decline found support just above that mark at 19.3230, and the pair has since moved higher, breaking above the 100-hour moving average, currently at 19.4639.

Holding above this level gives buyers a bit more short-term control. The next key upside target is the 200-hour moving average at 19.5375—a break above which would further strengthen the bullish bias and suggest a more meaningful recovery off the recent lows.

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