Close to the tip of Justin Fields’ triumphant win over the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears followers serenaded him with a passionate “We want Justin” chant. The refrain reached a fever pitch on an evening when Fields threw for north of 260 yards and one landing in a blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons. All through Sunday’s win, he made game-changing, spotlight performs like this, which had Chicago salivating.
Primarily based on the vibes, the consensus over whether or not Fields’ potential return because the Chicago Bears quarterback in 2024 has shifted over the previous month from ‘hell no’ to a toss-up. ESPN insider Jeremy Fowler dared to report that “Fields has absolutely made Chicago’s decision in the draft difficult by his playmaking and how he has done this year.”
A month in the past, shifting on from Fields was a no brainer. Nevertheless, since December started, Fields has received 4 of 5 video games, his finest stretch because the Bears quarterback as much as that time and satisfied sufficient individuals to eschew widespread sense and think about buying and selling the primary general decide. Primarily, they’d be constructing a palatial roster round a pauper quarterback. It might be probably the most painful mistake contained in the top-five because the Washington Commanders thought an edge rusher would propel them into respectability as an alternative of Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa.
Throughout this five-game spell, Fields has generated seven touchdowns, together with three on the bottom and thrown solely a triplet of interceptions. Two of these got here in a loss in opposition to the Cleveland Browns’ stifling protection. However Bears followers ought to need higher for themselves. I do know most of them haven’t seen high quality quarterback manufacturing in a Bears uniform because the Nineteen Eighties, however this dead-cat bounce is a continuation of the Justin Fields romanticism that’s distorted how poor his decision-making has been. Chicago doesn’t must accept a quarterback whose nadir is Zach Wilson and whose ceiling after three seasons is Jalen Hurts on a foul day. If all issues are equal, take the quarterback phenom.
The danger-benefit evaluation leans closely in the direction of protecting the No. 1 general decide. This isn’t even about Caleb Williams, though you might make a case for a Mahomesian prospect who’s infinitely extra proficient than Fields. Williams isn’t a positive factor. No prospect is, nonetheless, recency bias has run amok in Chi-City.
Here’s what we find out about Fields: Even after this month of comparatively mistake-free soccer, Fields’ fourth-quarter completion proportion ranked final within the NFL, he completed twenty fifth in yards per try, twenty ninth in fourth-quarter interceptions and thirtieth in QBR this season.
The fact is {that a} coordinator or scheme change received’t flip Fields into Josh Allen or Cam Newton. So far, Fields’ performances have been extra akin to a poor man’s Kyler Murray. He’s someway each turnover inclined and reluctant to throw. In accordance with ESPN’s Stats & Data division, Fields is last among qualified quarterbacks in average time per pass (3.23 seconds) in 2023 and since his rookie season.
The danger-benefit evaluation leans closely in the direction of protecting the primary. The meager wage allotted to No. 1 picks would enable the Bears to shovel tens of millions to free brokers that might in any other case be reserved for a quarterback. I get it. NFL followers are obsessive about bodily presents and the No.1 decide is an unknown, however what we find out about Fields is that he lives on all-time low and infrequently comes up for air. Now and again, he’ll wow you with performs like this, however then he’ll stare down a receiver and hit a MLB proper within the chest. Too typically, he’s a game-changer quarterback for Bears’ opponents. It might be one factor if there was one thing tangible to construct off of.
Chicago simply went via this cycle for a decade with Jay Cutler. They waited for him to show the nook into elite standing, solely to observe him do a poor Matt Stafford imitation. Most groups don’t get a possibility to CTRL+ALT+DEL an underwhelming eleventh general decide. They positioned a guess on the Panthers faltering this season and hit the jackpot in a quarterback wealthy draft.
Now is just not the time to get cute. Fields is simply resulting from obtain roughly $4 million subsequent season, however committing to him over the No.1 decide would basically imply selecting up their $23 million fifth-year possibility for 2025 by Could 2024. Not solely would Williams enable them to keep away from committing two extra years to Fields, however it will reset the franchises’ clock on doling out a crippling franchise quarterback wage to a so-so quarterback. A staff with out the No. 1 decide can be okay with him creating right into a center of the pack starter, however the Bears have an exit ramp.
Totally different quarterbacks progress at their very own tempo, however there aren’t many historic precedents for a quarterback throwing as poorly as Fields has, after which out of the blue adjusting his trajectory in 12 months 4 or 5. By 12 months three, Hurts was matching Patrick Mahomes pass-for-pass in a Tremendous Bowl. Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Geno Smith and Steve Younger are the uncommon exceptions of quarterbacks whose breakthroughs got here throughout or after their fourth season.
Younger and Brees bounced again from wobbly begins with low cost, dysfunctional organizations and their tales will each find yourself within the Corridor of Fame. Nevertheless, these glow-ups took years to come back to come back to fruition. 20 years later, the Niners additionally acquired caught with Alex Smith till he started resembling an above-average starter in 12 months seven. Smith’s redemption story started in his ninth season, on his fourth staff.
A 12 months in the past, Fields opened eyes by recording the third 1,000-yard dashing season in league historical past from a QB, however the passing assault was grounded by a variety of components together with Fields. For 3 years, Fields has been mediocre, however satiated Windy Metropolis on the few events the place he meets their low expectations. Williams (or Drake Maye) might stumble out of the gates, however it’s cheaper to observe a rookie be taught on the fly than a quarterback who ought to know higher by now.
Fields has another alternative to finish his season on a excessive notice in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers. It could be probably the most scrutinized Bears sport of the Fields period. In 5 profession matchups in opposition to the Packers, Fields has thrown practically twice as many picks as touchdowns and misplaced all 5 contests. Until the Bears are gluttons for punishment, they’ll ship Fields onto the following stage of his NFL journey. Optimistically, Fields will finally hone his elite instruments, however the hourglass is operating out in Chicago.
Comply with DJ Dunson on X: @cerebralsportex
