Best MLB Bets for Tuesday September twenty third: Top Baseball Betting Picks Today

The final week of the MLB season has arrived! Let’s try to end the regular season on a winning note!

Season Record: 14-12-2, +2.18 Units

Mets at Cubs

Mets ML (+105 ESPN BET)

I am probably looking through Blue and Orange-colored glasses here, but hear me out. The Mets have completely dropped the ball in 2025 — literally and figuratively. They both forgot how to play the field and can’t avoid at least one catastrophic breakdown in every game.

When last seen on Sunday, they made a couple crucial errors but still only allowed three runs, while pushing across just two against a Nats piggyback combo of Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker. How disappointing is that?

Of 54 qualified starters in 2025, the Mets have two of the worst ERAs.

They will roll out the slumping David Peterson, who has a 7.89 ERA and 1.66 WHIP dating back to August 6. The Cubs counter with rookie ace Cade Horton, who’s been terrific all year, especially at home. He’s gone 8-1 since the All-Star break, with a 0.93 ERA and 0.79 WHIP.

So why take the Mets? The chasm between the pitchers reduces when you dig deeper. Peterson is a ground ball pitcher on a run of super bad luck. He has a 2.6 LA and 55% GB%, but everything is finding a hole — he’s yielded a .371 BABIP and his SIERA is 4.05. Meanwhile, Horton on his hot run has a .195 BABIP against and has yielded just two homers on 10 barrels. He’s a fly ball pitcher, and just 2.9% of them have left the yard vs. Peterson’s 13.5%. Horton’s SIERA is 3.93 on this run.

Also, the Cubs offense has looked meh in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, they have a .703 OPS and 98 wRC+ vs. .786 and 121 for the Mets. They scored just seven runs in four games in Cincinnati. The Cubs are a virtual lock to land the second Wild Card and are essentially not playing for anything. I’ll take a shot on the Mets not stepping on rakes for a change.

Astros at Athletics

F5 Over 5.5 Runs (-102 FanDuel)

Houston is fighting for their playoff lives after getting swept at home by the Mariners. The A’s are…well, kind of fighting the urge to get the golf clubs.

I don’t really trust the Astros and tonight’s SP Cristian Javier — 4.45 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a dangerous 22.4 LA in the Sutter Park launching pad. I’m not crazy about his opposite number either. Jeffrey Springs has a 5.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home.

The righty-heavy Astros are one of the better teams in MLB with a 106 wRC+, which ranks 8th in the league. A’s F5 Home Overs have gone 46-25 with a league-best 19.5% ROI this season, according to VSiN.com — that’s where I’m playing this one.