Best MLB Prop Bets for Friday September twenty sixth: Top Baseball Betting Picks Today

Eleven of the fifteen games today have playoff implications, we could not ask for much more. Let’s try to nail a couple winners as we head into the postseason!

Season Record: 17-14-2, +1.96 Units

Rangers at Guardians

Pick: Under 8 (-120 Caesars)

The banged-up Rangers travel to visit the red-hot Guardians tonight, and we get an interesting pitching matchup.

Jack Leiter of the Rangers has improved by leaps and bounds as the season has gone on. He bumped his K% from 19.9% pre-All-Star break to 25.2% in the second half, while lowering his ERA from 4.37 to 3.36 and his WHIP from 1.36 to 1.24. He’s done it with a notable pitch-mix change, using his fastball less (33.5% vs. 43.4%) and his sinker and slider more (44.2% combined vs. 27.1%).

Meanwhile, Slade Cecconi on the Guardians has had an overall OK 4.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP season, but has gone full ace in his last three starts. He’s yielded just two earned runs, six hits, and five walks in 20.1 IP to go with 15 K’s.

Neither pitcher faces a particularly intimidating offense. Yes, the Guardians rarely lose these days, but that is almost entirely thanks to their run prevention. They’ve slashed .244/.310/.411 in September with a 102 wRC+, good for 12th in MLB. That’s their “hot” version. On the season they have an 87 wRC+, better than only the Rockies and Pirates — two teams that should be relegated to AAA.

The Rangers’ bats have had a very disappointing season and it just snowballed in September amid an avalanche of injuries. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, and Evan Carter are all out for the year, and it would not shock to see them shut down Adolis Garcia for the weekend. Roll it all up and they’ve slashed just .208/.278/.325 in September with a 70 wRC+ that’s second-worst in the league. I just do not see much scoring tonight.

Padres at Diamondbacks

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+125 BetMGM)

How have the DBacks stayed in the playoff hunt this late despite trading away half their team? Well, Zac Gallen reprising his role as their ace has a lot to do with it.

Since the deadline, Gallen has gone 6-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 60 innings over 10 starts. He’s turned in 8 quality starts over that stretch.

The Padres are a tough opponent, but they’ll play a bit short-handed tonight. Ramón Laureano is out with a broken finger and Fernando Tatis Jr. has not played all week with some sort of illness. They’re also resting at least one starter every night as they coast into their Wild Card series with the Cubs next week.

Yu Darvish starts tonight and he’s better than his 5.51 ERA would indicate, as he has a 3.29 xERA and 3.86 SIERA. His LOB% is 61.9% vs. a career mark of 75.6% and a league average of 72.2%. In other words, everyone who gets on against him is scoring.

Still, at 39, he’s not Peak Yu. And he does not go deep in games on a normal basis — and he really won’t get pushed tonight with the playoffs looming. Let’s roll with the DBacks.