On-chain data shows the total demand for Bitcoin has significantly contracted over the past month, hitting a pace comparable to the LUNA collapse.
Bitcoin Spot & Futures Demand Has Shrunken Recently
As pointed out by CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno in an X post, Bitcoin demand has been contracting at a sharp rate recently. “Demand” here refers to the combined amount of Bitcoin flowing into spot and futures markets.
Below is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the 30-day change in this demand over the last few years.
The value of the metric appears to have plummeted in recent days | Source: @jjcmoreno on X
As displayed in the graph, the total demand for Bitcoin rose alongside the price surge that occurred over the course of April and the first half of May. Interestingly, as the color coding of the curve suggests, this increase was due to demand flowing into derivatives markets; spot demand actually contracted during the rally.
In the past, upward moves in the price have generally only been sustainable when demand has simultaneously risen in the spot and futures markets. From the chart, it’s apparent that both the bull rallies in 2024 and the run in 2025 involved this green setup. Since the recent recovery surge was only fueled by speculative activity, it may not be surprising that it couldn’t last, and a sharp reversal has followed for the market.
The shift of winds in the Bitcoin sector has not only involved the total demand flipping into the negative, but it has also led to a turnaround in direction for speculative activity that has aligned it with the spot market’s trend of contraction. Currently, the 30-day change in the total demand is sitting at a negative value of 501,000 BTC, which is the lowest that the metric has hit since May 2022. “Bitcoin demand is contracting at a pace comparable to the post-Terra/Luna collapse period,” noted the analyst.
The Terra/LUNA collapse was a violent event that occurred during the 2022 bear market. During the event, UST, an algorithmic stablecoin, lost its $1 peg and caused the Terra ecosystem to destabilize into a death spiral, ultimately triggering a crash in the wider sector.
Back then, the contraction in spot and futures demand reached the -559,000 BTC mark. The current value of the indicator is still not there, but if the market continues in this trajectory, it’s possible that demand could flow out of the market at a similar rate. It only remains to be seen, though, how the Bitcoin sector will develop in the near future.
BTC Price
Following the price crash, Bitcoin has dropped to the $63,200 level, the lowest that the asset has been since February.
Looks like the price of the coin has been declining recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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