Bitcoin investors are grappling with a demand dearth that has pushed the cryptocurrency into bear market territory at times. But analysts are still confident the cryptocurrency can reach new records by the end of the year. A recent reawakening of demand for bitcoin ETFs is a positive sign for the price in the medium term – but demand for the cryptocurrency that backs those funds is stagnant and badly needs a boost if bitcoin is going to hit new records, according to CryptoQuant. It’s currently 18% off an all-time high it hit in March. The data firm said it could reach between $85,000 and $100,000 this quarter. “Bitcoin’s overall market cap is very large now, $1.2 trillion, and there is considerable liquidity,” John Todaro, a crypto analyst at Needham, told CNBC. “While there is a lot of buying volume, there are also a lot of sellers.” “You need … a significant amount of buying demand on any week to move bitcoin price in an outsized direction,” he added. “Bitcoin total volume can be in the tens of billions in a given day while the ETFs are more in the hundreds of millions.” After net selling 5,000 BTC on Sept. 2, bitcoin ETFs net bought 7,000 BTC by the end of September, the highest daily purchase since July 21, according to CryptoQuant. If that uptrend continues it could propel prices between now and the end of the year. (In the first quarter, bitcoin ETFs bought about 9,000 BTC daily on average, following their January launch.) Although it’s currently sitting near $60,000, the fourth quarter of a bitcoin bull cycle tends to see huge gains, especially in a halving year. In the fourth quarters of 2012, 2016, and 2020 — the previous Bitcoin halving years — bitcoin prices rose by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively. The most recent halving — the supply cutting event that takes place every four years — happened this April. Since then, stocks have climbed to new highs, both U.S. presidential candidates have made positive statements about crypto, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the central bank of China announced a series of rate cuts. “If you had told us in March that the S & P would be north of [5,700], we would have assumed BTC would be flirting with $100,000,” Wolfe Research’s Rob Ginsberg said in a recent note . “Instead it has been just the opposite. … It would be fair to say that while the market has climbed to new highs, crypto has been in a bear market since March.” BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin (BTC) year-to-date Bitcoin is set up well for the final quarter , but it’s still working through a supply overhang from the U.S. and German governments as well as Mt. Gox repayments to creditors. On top of that, many traders are standing by to see the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and more recently, tensions are rising in the Middle East. Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer, pointed to bitcoin’s use as a hedge against uncertainty. “Bitcoin is a global phenomenon, and will likely react to easing action, which drives future inflationary pressure,” he said. “These uncertainties could drive bitcoin volatility and trading volume in the near term, which is a backdrop favorable to Coinbase .”
