Bitcoin nears $65,000 because the promoting stress continues

Bitcoin has been steadily sold over the past 12 hours after trading higher earlier.

It’s down 0.7% on the day and is threatening the $65,000 level and last week’s low of $64,924. Cracking that would leave it at a one-month low despite US equities hitting records.

It may be an example of the worsening breadth in risk assets. The entire market rally has been carried by a handful of stocks — mostly NVDA — with the broader market lagging and the Russell 2000 at a one-month low.

Bitcoin could also be a bellwether for weakness in equities more broadly. Bitcoin has failed several times to hold above $70,000 and would be vulnerable if there is a broad selling in equities or a turn lower in risk assets.

The main event to watch this week is Tuesday’s retail sales report. Signs of a crack in consumers could boost Fed rate-cut hopes but I think that would be counteracted by worries about a slowing economy and a Fed that could quickly fall behind the curve and leave the economy vulnerable to a recession.