Fundamental
Overview
Bitcoin suffered a notable
correction in June despite a generally positive risk sentiment. Last week, we
got a quick drop into a key support zone on the news that
Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in
July 2024 after years of postponed deadlines. Crypto traders have been aware of
this event coming, although the timing was unknown.
Now, there’s
a good argument that this event could keep a lid on Bitcoin as there’s some
fear that people could lock in some gains once they get their Bitcoins. You can
read a nice and comprehensive CNBC article here
on this topic. In the big picture though, the price might remain supported amid a positive risk sentiment as we approach the first Fed’s rate cut.
Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin eventually bounced from the key 60000 support zone and extended the rally into the 64000
level. If we get another flush lower, the buyers will step back in around the
60K level and the major trendline.
The sellers will need the price to break below the trendline to turn the bias more
bearish.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the
bearish momentum into the key support. This might be another signal of a change
in the sentiment and attract more buyers.
We can see that we now have
a good support around the 62400 level where we can find the confluence
of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the broken trendline. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price falling below the support to position for a drop into
the 60000 support zone.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the setup around the 62400 level. A break above the recent
high at 63800 should give the buyers more conviction to increase the bullish
bets into the 67250 level next. The red lines define the average
daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we
get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day.
Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
