Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Nakagawa, full text:

Nakagawa:

If its outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, BOJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate
High uncertainties remain over future course of trade policies and their impact
BoJ will make monetary appropriate policy decisions by continuing to carefully assess data and information
There is possibility that upward pressure on wages and the pass-through of higher wages to selling prices will strengthen
Results of the upcoming September Tankan will also be very important in examining the changes arising from factors such as progress in trade policy negotiations
If firms focus much more on cost cutting over passing on cost increases to selling prices due to tariffs, moves to reflect price rises in wages could weaken
Heightened uncertainties over trade policies are likely to affect business and household sentiment around the world, could push down Japan, overseas economies
Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part
There are high uncertainties regarding outlook for economic activity and prices
Future developments in such factors as firms’ behavior shifting more toward raising wages and prices warrant careful attention

Nakagawa is hedging both ways with these remarks. I guess we do what he suggests and pay attention to the Bank of Japan September Tankan report. Expect the Tankan report for September 2025 to drop on September 30 or October 1, 2025.

The Tankan survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to measure the economic health of Japanese companies. The survey is widely considered to be one of the most important indicators of the Japanese economy, as it provides a detailed snapshot of the current and expected business conditions among large manufacturers, non-manufacturers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan.

The survey is based on a sample of approximately 10,000 companies and covers a wide range of topics, including business conditions, investment plans, and employment. The survey results are used by the BOJ and other government agencies to make policy decisions, and are also closely watched by economists, investors, and businesses. The Tankan survey is usually released in the first week of the month following the quarter it covers, and it’s considered as a leading indicator for the Japanese economy.