The Cleveland Guardians entered the weekend 3.5 games back of the Tigers for the lead in the AL Central. Cleveland took three out of four from Minnesota, including the first-ever double-header shutout since the 1960s, and the Tigers were swept in heartbreaking fashion by an Atlanta Braves team removed from playoff contention.
The division lead has shrunk to a mere game, and Cleveland has complete control of their playoff destiny now. Detroit would need to sweep Cleveland to take back the head-to-head tiebreaker, and this would also be enough to lock up the division, with the Tigers’ magic down to six games.
If you asked fans of each of these teams how they feel going into this series, Cleveland is definitely the more excited city, looking to pull off the largest divisional comeback in baseball history.
However, everyone is counting out the Tigers way too soon to push a storybook ending. Tarik Skubal is on the bump game one for Detroit, and in a “bad game” went six innings of one-run baseball just last week against Cleveland.
Both bullpens will be rested with the day off on Monday, so Detroit will be throwing everything at Cleveland in a game that feels like a must-win. If the Guardians throw the first punch and steal a win against Skubal, the pressure Detroit is under somehow reaches an even higher level.
Speaking of pressure, the Tigers need something out of Riley Greene this series. He’s struggled mightily against Cleveland this year, going 2-for-34 with one home run and 16 strikeouts. Kerry Carpenter had his superstar moments against Cleveland this year and last year in this same stadium. It’s up to Greene to do his best Jose Ramirez impression and steal a win on his own.
For Cleveland, how long can the starting pitching continue this level of success? The offense is what it is at this point. CJ Kayfus, George Valera, and the return of Brayan Rocchio have added depth to this offense, but it ultimately comes down to how far these starting pitchers can take them.
It’s a complete 180 from last season, where you only needed five somewhat competitive innings out of a starter, and the bullpen would close the door. The pen has still been one of the better units in the sport, but having an elite closer who throws 100 miles an hour would be something awfully beneficial for Cleveland at the moment… The Nic Enright injury hurts a whole lot, too.
The best part about this series is that it could be setting up a potential playoff rematch in the future. If Cleveland and Detroit make it to the dance, there is an over 40% chance that these two teams would meet in a three vs. six seed Wild Card game. A homefield advantage for a best-of-three series would be massive for either of these teams, so we’re in for a treat this week.
