Canada October employment change +14.5K vs +25.0K anticipated

• Prior month +46.7K
• Unemployment rate 6.5%vs 6.6% expected (prior 6.5%)
• Full-time employment +25.6K vs +112.0K prior
• Part-time employment -11.2K vs -65.3K prior
• Participation rate 64.8% vs 64.9% prior
• Average hourly wages y/y 4.9% vs 4.5% prior
• Private sector employment +20.5K vs +61K prior
• Public sector employment -17.2K vs -24K prior

Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in a 60% chance of 50 bps from the Bank of Canada and a 40% chance of a 25 bps cut. That ticked down to 54-46% afterwards. USD/CAD was trading at 1.3909 and slipped to 1.3903.

The Bank of Canada is likely to see further evidence of jobs market weakening here, though it’s not enough to confirm 50 bps yet. They will get another jobs report before the Dec 11 BOC. A particularly troubling sign is the decline in participation to 64.8% from 65.7% at the start of 2023. Excluding the pandemic, labor market participation is the lowest since 1997.

Demographically, youth unemployment is a worsening problem but it improved in the month by 33K and the unemployment rate