Canadian election polls slim to almost a lifeless warmth

The resignation of Trudeau and Trump’s talk of annexing Canada have upended the Canadian political landscape.

The latest Nanos tracking poll has Conservatives leading the Liberals by just one point.

At the turn of the year it looked like Conservatives would win this year’s election in a landslide but that’s now in question. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has struggled to separate himself from MAGA politics and that’s become a severe liability as Trump has gone on the offensive against Canada in a trade war.

Mark Carney has positioned himself as an outsider and a
fresh face, easily winning the Liberal leadership and poised to take over as
Prime Minister. He could wait until as long as October to call an election but
I expect he will call for a vote by the end of the month, with a 6-8 week campaign
to follow. Before the vote, Carney’s Liberals may repeal the consumer carbon tax,
which has been a drag on Trudeau. That move would lower gasoline prices and may
give the Bank of Canada cover to cut further as inflation is already running
below target. For tomorrow, a BOC cut is 87% priced in but for another one in
April it’s at 35%.

The shifts in voting intentions so far show that it could be
a fluid race.

It will be a shift to the right either way but there are
upside CAD risks in Conservatives win and downside risks if Liberals win,
though the magnitude of those might change once some electoral positions are
outlined.