The agenda points to a big week in markets with key central bank policy decisions lined up. But all in all, it may play out rather straightforward. The Fed is set to keep interest rates unchanged while the ECB and BOC are set to cut by 25 bps each respectively. And that settles it in terms of the decision making at least.

As per usual, the language and communique from the Fed will be the most interesting of the bunch. That especially with Trump now in the picture. He is calling for the Fed to lower rates “immediately” but policymakers will be sticking to their guns for now. And markets seem to believe that to be the case as well.

The first rate cut by the Fed is priced in for June currently with ~43 bps of rate cuts priced in for the year. It’s a slight step up to the previous pricing going into the turn of the year here.

As for the ECB, they are looking to set up back-to-back rate cuts for this week and in March next. So, that’s the key story line to watch out for especially with Lagarde’s press conference. Expect her to be questioned on that but she may very well reaffirm the more gradual and data dependent approach by the central bank.

And lastly, we’ll have the BOC where it will be interesting to see how they position their communication for March and/or April next. Traders are seeing ~94% odds of a rate cut this week but are less certain of another one in March. The pricing shows that April is the suggestive timeline for the next rate cut but Trump tariffs will certainly have say in all of this. And they are set to be enacted on 1 February.