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China personal survey manufacturing PMI (September) 51.2 (anticipated 50.3, prior 50.5)

Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI (Sep) beats easily at 51.2

  • expected 50.3, prior 50.5
  • 51.2 is the fastest since March this year
  • better underlying demand conditions, business promotional efforts and new product launches supported
  • upturn in overall new business, with the rate of expansion the fastest since February
  • new export orders increased for the first time since March
  • quickest gain in production in three months
  • inventories of finished goods rose due to increased production and manufacturers’ efforts to rebuild stock levels
  • The government’s pledge to put an end to aggressive price cuts by some Chinese companies pushed up input prices to the highest since November 2024

  • average selling prices declined slightly after stabilising in August
  • job shedding continued in the manufacturing sector in September, though the rate of reduction eased to the slowest in six months.

Rating Dog Services PMI (Sep) also a beat, but down a tic from August, at 52.9

  • expected 52.3, prior 53.0

Composite 52.5

Earlier:

China official manufacturing PMI (September) 49.8 (expected 49.6, prior 49.4)

China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin now Rating Dog China PMI published by Markit / S&P Global.

  • The official PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies, while the Caixin PMI survey covers more small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is considered to be a more reliable indicator of the performance of China’s private sector.
  • Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a broader sample of companies than the official survey. Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings on China’s manufacturing sector.

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