China controls global supply of samarium, a rare earth metal critical for U.S. and allied military production—fighter jets, missiles, and more.

Supply disruptions in recent months have come just as Western nations are scrambling to restock depleted weapons inventories due to support for Ukraine and Israel.

The recent U.S.-China trade truce left military-use rare earth exports unresolved.

At the London negotiations, Chinese officials linked export approvals for certain military-grade rare earths—including samarium—to U.S. restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China.

China refuses to approve exports of specific rare earth metals used in U.S. weapon systems, maintaining a chokepoint in the global supply chain.

Beijing offered to fast-track civilian-use export licenses for trusted U.S. firms and opened a limited “green channel,” military-use materials remain blocked.

The U.S. has said there will be no quid pro quo on lifting AI chip curbs in return for access to rare earths.

The U.S. may extend tariffs on Chinese goods beyond the August 10 deadline, casting doubt on a comprehensive deal.

China’s rare earth monopoly, especially in refining and processing, continues to be a key strategic vulnerability for the West.

Analysts warn that fundamental issues—like trade imbalance and critical minerals—won’t be resolved soon, possibly not during Trump’s term.

The talks reflect Beijing’s readiness to use rare earths as geopolitical leverage.

Ryan Hass of Brookings notes the Trump administration is learning it can’t secure another one-sided trade deal, as China is increasingly assertive.

The info comes via various reports, Reuters, New York Times.

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