China is expected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Monday, marking a fourth straight month of stability despite the Federal Reserve’s move to cut rates last week. A Reuters survey of 20 analysts unanimously predicted no change, leaving the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%.
While recent data points to slowing momentum in the Chinese economy, policymakers appear reluctant to roll out large-scale stimulus, with resilient exports and a rally in domestic equities reducing pressure for action. The People’s Bank of China last week left its seven-day reverse repo rate—the main policy rate—unchanged, reinforcing expectations that the LPR will remain steady.
Most lending in China is tied to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing. Both rates were last trimmed by 10 basis points in May.
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PBOC LPR Moves (2024–2025)
| Date | One-year LPR | Five-year LPR | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 3.00% | 3.50% | -10bp | Latest cut; both 1Y and 5Y trimmed. |
| Feb 2024 | 3.45% | 3.95% | -25bp (5Y only) | Big mortgage-linked cut aimed at property sector support. |
| Aug 2023 | 3.45% | 4.20% | -10bp (1Y), -15bp (5Y) | Coordinated easing to counter weak growth. |
| Jun 2023 | 3.55% | 4.20% | -10bp (1Y), -10bp (5Y) | First LPR cut since Aug 2022. |
| Aug 2022 | 3.65% | 4.30% | -5bp (1Y), -15bp (5Y) | Targeted mortgage support. |
| Jan 2022 | 3.70% | 4.60% | -10bp (1Y), -5bp (5Y) | Part of early 2022 easing cycle. |
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