Citigroup has launched new forecasts for ether, setting a year-end base case of $4,300—slightly below current levels around $4,515. The bank’s range is wide, with a bull case at $6,400 and a bear case at $2,200, highlighting deep uncertainty around drivers of value.
Analysts pointed to network activity as the key determinant for ETH’s valuation but cautioned that much of the recent growth has been on layer-2 networks, where the value passed through to Ethereum’s base layer is uncertain. Citi assumes just 30% of layer-2 activity contributes to ETH’s price, implying current levels are running ahead of its activity-based model. The bank sees inflows, tokenization momentum, and stablecoin demand helping to bridge that gap.
ETF flows have been smaller than bitcoin’s but pack more punch on a per-dollar basis, though Citi expects them to stay limited due to ether’s smaller market cap and lower visibility with new investors. Macro conditions are not expected to offer major support either, with U.S. equities already close to the bank’s S&P 500 target of 6,600.
