College Football Playoff Saturday December twenty first Best Betting Picks

After months of anticipation, the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is here. The four-team Playoff had produced a bevy of forgettable semifinals, but the expanded tournament’s first round got off to a similarly inauspicious start, with Notre Dame dominating Indiana before two garbage-time touchdowns on Friday.

Despite the underwhelming start, a Saturday full of Playoff matchups has the potential to fulfill the promise of this new format with three intriguing contests.

All three Saturday first-round games also offer intriguing opportunities for bettors.

Drew Allar Anytime Touchdown, +160 (FanDuel)

Penn State welcomes SMU to Happy Valley in the first of Saturday’s three Playoff games, with both teams coming off heartbreaking losses in their conference championship tilts. The Mustangs and Nittany Lions may not seem comparable at first glance, but they share at least one key trait: Both have been excellent at defending the run.

With a combined 17 rushing touchdowns allowed between their top-10-ranked run defenses, scoring opportunities could be scarce. That’s where Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s ability to make plays with his feet provides the Nittany Lions a potential X-factor.

Allar heads into the Playoff having rushed for a touchdown in each of Penn State’s last three games, including a 54-yard performance against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. At +160, there’s solid value in Allar extending his rushing touchdown streak to four games against a stout SMU defense.

Clemson +13.5 at Texas, -105 (ESPN Bet)

After opening at Texas -10.5, most sportsbooks saw the line jump to -13.5 by late Friday; ESPN Bet’s -105 odds for Clemson are the most favorable of the lot. As the last team in the Playoff field, Clemson heads to Austin playing with the proverbial house money against a host that has been somewhat shaky against the spread.

After losing the SEC Championship Game straight up as a -2.5 favorite, Texas fell to 2-5 against the spread since Oct. 19. Clemson has not been particularly good against the spread itself, despite winning the ACC Championship Game straight up as an underdog.

However, the Tigers have played their last four FBS opponents to final margins of 10 points or fewer. Except for a 34-31 ACC Championship win over SMU, these have been low-scoring contests.

Texas should defend its home turf, but with two strong defenses facing up-and-down offenses, the final score could be low and not conducive to a blowout. A win similar to the Longhorns’ 17-7 defeat of rival Texas A&M, or Clemson’s 17-14 loss to South Carolina the same week, could be the play.

Ohio State-Tennessee U46, -108 (DraftKings)

The lone Big Ten vs. SEC showdown of the first round features two of the nation’s stingiest defenses in the regular season. Tennessee held opponents to 13.9 points per game, while Ohio State’s 10.9 yield led the nation.

Both defenses also come into the postseason having allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards per game—Ohio State at 96.8 and Tennessee at 99.6. Each features an outstanding front seven, with the Buckeyes boasting a trio of All-Big Ten selections on the line: JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, and Tyleik Williams.

For Tennessee, standout edge rusher James Pearce Jr. leads the charge with 11 tackles for loss.

Each team’s defensive statistics are impressive on their own. Combine them with some figures on the opponent’s offense, and those numbers become even more telling.

While Ohio State averaged 35.5 points per game, the Buckeyes scored a total of only 51 points against Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan—three of the four best defenses OSU faced.

Likewise, Tennessee’s 37.3 points per game ranked eighth nationally coming into Saturday’s contest. However, in 6 of 7 matchups against defenses ranked in the top 70 nationally for points allowed, the Vols only exceeded 28 points once: A 36-23 defeat of Vanderbilt.

While both Ohio State and Tennessee are competent offensively, each is in the Playoff because of its outstanding defense. Expect those defenses to set the tone in a physical, low-scoring matchup.