College Football Sleeper Teams Who Could Crash New Expanded Playoff

College football’s version of March Madness arrives as the playoff expands to 12 teams and finally props the door open for an underdog or two to emerge.

Thanks to automatic qualifiers, the game’s closest parallel to the NCAA Tournament will not just be a Big Ten vs. SEC showcase in 2024. 

With those spots up for grabs in the new postseason, here’s a quintet of teams capable of coming from off the radar to supply a gridiron version of March magic in December.

Big 12: Kansas

A decade removed from leading Wisconsin-Whitewater to its sixth NCAA Div. III national championship of his tenure, Kansas coach Lance Leipold may well have the Jayhawks poised for genuine title contention in the FBS.

Last season’s nine wins were KU’s most since Mark Mangino’s 12-1, Orange Bowl-winning team in 2007, and the Jayhawks landed in the Playoff poll for the first time ever with a final rank of No. 16.

Much hinges on electric quarterback Jalon Daniels staying healthy. Hometown standout running back Devin Neal is a potential All-American and could help KU survive a game or two without Daniels.

Among the logjam of preseason contenders in the new-look Big 12, KU benefits from missing Utah and Arizona.

ACC: NC State

ACC: NC State

North Carolina State football teams checked in at No. 12 or better in the final Top 25 poll twice in program history. The first time was in 1974 under Lou Holtz, and the second was in 2002 with Philip Rivers at quarterback.

While hardly a historic powerhouse, NC State has become a consistent winner in current head coach Dave Doeren’s tenure. Last season’s final playoff ranking of No. 18 marked the Wolfpack’s unprecedented fourth consecutive season finishing in the Top 25 of any poll and fifth in seven years.

After knocking on the door of ACC title contention, NC State could be prepared to break through in 2024 behind a veteran defense. And the schedule won’t hurt. The 2024 slate lacks reigning ACC champion Florida State, and the Wolfpack face Clemson early in the season.

Big Ten: Iowa

Ignore the memes and social media mockery that follow Iowa, and you’ll see a program with top 17 playoff poll finishes in four of the last five seasons and a winning percentage of .615 or better every year since 2015. And that was all achieved with an offense that invited mockery and memeification.

By adding offensive coordinator Tim Lester, who embraces an uptempo approach Iowa has been lacking, the Hawkeyes may have found the missing piece that prevented them from reaching the four-team playoff. Quarterback Cade McNamara, who reached the playoffs at Michigan, will be crucial to unlocking the revamped offense.

The effectiveness of a work-in-progress offense is a question mark; Iowa’s defense is as reliable as it comes. Linebacker Jay Higgins’ steady progression into stardom continues as he leads Iowa on that side of the ball in 2024.

SEC: Oklahoma

Is it realistic to label a program that qualified for the four-team playoffs in the tournament’s brief history as a sleeper? When that program is moving into the crowded party known as the SEC, the answer is an unequivocal yes. 

Some might contend the playoffs were expanded specifically to net the SEC more berths. Whether that conspiracy theory has merit, the league should land at least three invitations in 2024. That puts a good Oklahoma team in a musical chairs scenario with Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, rival Texas, Missouri and Tennessee, all of which are commonly picked to finish ahead of the Sooners across a variety of preseason forecasts.

Jackson Arnold carries a heavy weight, replacing Dillon Gabriel at the controls of a near-42-point per-game offense. But the season-long performance of the Sooners offensive line will be a more telling factor in OU’s Playoff hopes. 

Group of Five: Fresno State

Fresno State is arguably the best program from a non-automatic qualifying conference to never reach a BCS or New Year’s Six bowl game during the 20 seasons of the Bowl Championship Series and four-team College Football Playoff.

Former head coach Pat Hill’s emphasis on scheduling marquee non-conference opponents may have been an ironic hurdle preventing the Bulldogs from crashing the party—and, in that vein, the Jeff Tedford-led 2024 team kicks off against defending national champion Michigan. The Bulldogs’ showing in the Big House may well determine Fresno State’s chances right out of the gate, since the Group of Five qualifier is in competition with four other conferences.

By the same token, Mikey Keene, Malachi Langley and former top-three high school recruit Korey Foreman showing out in Ann Arbor could set Fresno State on a course for history.