WTI crude oil futures settled at $82.48, up $0.70 or 0.85%, after another volatile day of trading driven by shifting geopolitical headlines. The session featured a wide trading range, with prices climbing to a high of $84.60 before plunging to an intraday low of $79.58. That sharp decline followed reports suggesting that a 10-day cease-fire could be agreed to and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz might resume without disruption. Since the Strait is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, the news briefly eased concerns over potential supply disruptions and prompted a wave of aggressive selling.
That bearish reaction, however, proved to be short-lived. As traders began to question the durability of any cease-fire agreement and renewed geopolitical risks—including stronger rhetoric from Washington and Tehran, and reports of further U.S. military planning, and explosions reported across several Middle Eastern countries. The price started to rebound. The recovery was swift, erasing the entire post-headline decline and pushing crude steadily higher through the remainder of the North American session. By the close, prices had not only recovered all of the losses but had settled firmly in positive territory, underscoring the market’s continued sensitivity to supply risks in the Middle East.
The technical picture also improved considerably during the recovery. On the hourly chart, the cease-fire headlines briefly knocked the price below its rising 100-hour moving average, giving sellers a chance to seize short-term control. They were unable to capitalize. Instead, buyers quickly reclaimed that moving average, turning what initially looked like a bearish technical break into another failed downside attempt. Once back above the moving average, momentum shifted decisively in favor of the bulls.
Equally important, crude oil spent most of the next 45 hours trading above last Tuesday’s swing high at $81.25. That former resistance level has now become an important support area. The ability to remain above it signals that buyers are willing to defend higher prices rather than simply chase short-term rallies. As long as the market continues to hold above that level, the near-term technical bias remains tilted to the upside.
The rebound also carried prices back above the 50% retracement of the decline from the June 3 high, a key technical level that comes in at $82.01. Midpoint retracement levels often act as important dividing lines between bullish and bearish momentum. Closing the day above that level is a constructive technical development because it suggests buyers have regained control after what initially appeared to be a significant reversal lower. Holding above $82.01 will now be an important test for the bulls. If buyers can continue to defend that level, traders will likely look toward a retest of today’s $84.60 high and potentially higher resistance beyond. Conversely, a move back below $82.01 would weaken the improving technical picture and increase the risk of another test of support in the $81.25 area and the rising 100-hour moving average.
