Crude oil is settling up $0.81 or 1.33% at $61.69. The high price reached $62.12. The low price was at $61.04.
On the hourly chart, the high price briefly extended above a swing area between $61.45 and $61.94 (highlighted in yellow with red numbered circles on the chart). The market also traded both above and below the 100-hour moving average, currently at $61.64, but the upside momentum quickly faded. This choppy action suggests that buyers are probing the market, but so far have been unable to generate a sustained push higher. In the short term, traders appear to be testing sellers’ conviction following the sharp decline seen over the past few weeks, with the balance of control still leaning toward the downside unless buyers can build stronger momentum above key resistance.
Fundamentally, crude oil prices moved higher today as OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-expected production increase of 137,000 bpd, far below market expectations of a larger boost. Additional support came from reduced Russian output, after a Ukrainian drone strike forced a major refinery offline, tightening near-term supply.
However, gains were capped by a stronger US dollar and ongoing bearish supply signals, with OPEC+ continuing to unwind past production cuts and global output expected to rebound.
The market is now caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical supply risks and the prospect of significantly higher production levels, leaving traders cautious about the next directional move.
